A good time for a reread....

....The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail- but Some Don’t by Nate Silver

I just picked up this book again because I wanted something to read over lunch…read the introduction and now am going to continue, reading it for a second time. If you haven’t read it I suggest you at least read the introduction- it alone is well worth the price.

A couple cool things:

1-    An explanation for increased partisanship is simply that there is more information readily available (information doesn’t equal knowledge) and people tend to gather information that supports their biases. Take two partisan groups and the more informed they are, the more they will disagree. Examples include the printing press leading to countless wars and the right and left on the issue of climate change.

2-    Good timing. I am going home in a bit to do some research and predict if an idea I have will work. I am looking forward to try to use some of the stuff I learn from this book to see if I can’t make a good one. 

http://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Art-Science-Prediction-ebook/dp/B007V65R54/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1391552452&sr=1-1&keywords=the+signal+and+the+noise

Being Really Good at Something Non Physical

I have getting crushed the last few days. When this happens I always think, “am I really any good at this”. That got me thinking what makes someone really good at something (non physical). Here is what I have come up with.

1)   Good self analysis

-If you don’t ever stop to think about what you are doing it is going to be nearly impossible to put yourself on the right path towards being really good.

-Bad habits are easily formed and hard to undue.

-Being honest with yourself is usually pretty hard but seems like it would be very important for good self analysis

2)   Knowledge

-Having a lot of it and having it be correct. This knowledge should include fundamentals of your field and the psychology of others in your field.

-This knowledge should be learned to the level of unconscious competence. This allows you to act automatically and frees up your brain to think about new things or multiple pieces of the puzzle. You learn things to this automatic level through experience and repetition.

-You should also have the knowledge to separate the signal from the noise- meaningful events from randomness, variance.

3)    Attention to detail

-When you think about an expert or master you might think of him as having a great sense of the grand scheme or big picture. To be great at something though you need to have a good idea of the macro and the micro, being able to dig deeper into the smaller details that others gloss over.

4)   Combining theory and practice

-Having the awareness that we do not live in a perfectly predictable or completely rational world.

5)   Continual learning

     -Without it you won’t get to the top of the hill (if you get there you won’t stay long).