A good time for a reread....

....The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail- but Some Don’t by Nate Silver

I just picked up this book again because I wanted something to read over lunch…read the introduction and now am going to continue, reading it for a second time. If you haven’t read it I suggest you at least read the introduction- it alone is well worth the price.

A couple cool things:

1-    An explanation for increased partisanship is simply that there is more information readily available (information doesn’t equal knowledge) and people tend to gather information that supports their biases. Take two partisan groups and the more informed they are, the more they will disagree. Examples include the printing press leading to countless wars and the right and left on the issue of climate change.

2-    Good timing. I am going home in a bit to do some research and predict if an idea I have will work. I am looking forward to try to use some of the stuff I learn from this book to see if I can’t make a good one. 

http://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Art-Science-Prediction-ebook/dp/B007V65R54/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1391552452&sr=1-1&keywords=the+signal+and+the+noise

Being Really Good at Something Non Physical

I have getting crushed the last few days. When this happens I always think, “am I really any good at this”. That got me thinking what makes someone really good at something (non physical). Here is what I have come up with.

1)   Good self analysis

-If you don’t ever stop to think about what you are doing it is going to be nearly impossible to put yourself on the right path towards being really good.

-Bad habits are easily formed and hard to undue.

-Being honest with yourself is usually pretty hard but seems like it would be very important for good self analysis

2)   Knowledge

-Having a lot of it and having it be correct. This knowledge should include fundamentals of your field and the psychology of others in your field.

-This knowledge should be learned to the level of unconscious competence. This allows you to act automatically and frees up your brain to think about new things or multiple pieces of the puzzle. You learn things to this automatic level through experience and repetition.

-You should also have the knowledge to separate the signal from the noise- meaningful events from randomness, variance.

3)    Attention to detail

-When you think about an expert or master you might think of him as having a great sense of the grand scheme or big picture. To be great at something though you need to have a good idea of the macro and the micro, being able to dig deeper into the smaller details that others gloss over.

4)   Combining theory and practice

-Having the awareness that we do not live in a perfectly predictable or completely rational world.

5)   Continual learning

     -Without it you won’t get to the top of the hill (if you get there you won’t stay long).

Jan '14

What's up?
Here in Playa del Carmen, Mexico for the last few weeks. Life is good and I have been having a lot fun playing tennis, basketball, lifting, meeting a few new people, reading, learning, and playing some poker.
The last few days I have been consumed with the idea of opening up a food truck back in Harrisonburg. One minute I think that it is the completely obvious thing to do and the next I think I am completely insane (currently I think I am completely insane)
Go-For-It:
- Got enough money to start it up (barely)
- I think it would be crazy fun to start it up and a lot of fun to run it (at least in the beginning)
- Less time in front of a computer screen and more time interacting with people
- Spend exponentially more time with my family
- Could be profitable
- If it goes bust-o, not the end of the world
- No doubt would learn a shit ton
- I will get to figure out if it is/was a good idea or not
You Crazy:
- I sort of like what I am doing now (poker + travel + lots of free time to do what I want)
- Everybody and their brother wants to start a restaurant, very few succeed
- Pretty risky financially (lots of upside and a shitty downside, with not much middle ground)
- I would have no fucking idea what I was doing (although I think I am pretty good at learning on the fly)

(now I think it is pretty obvious I should just go for it)...what do you think?

Poker this month was ok. I didn't put in too much volume, I played like a monkey for a week in the middle of the month, I am still learning a bunch, and I won some good imaginary/theoretical money (but no actual money).

A cool blog/website: http://www.humansofnewyork.com/

An awesome program for your computer: http://justgetflux.com/

and two pictures: 

Rooftop view from my place here in Playa

Spent a great week with Grandpa in Detroit. Him and his sister.

Take care,

Ted

December, Year-in-Review, and 2014 Resolutions

December Summary:
I was all over the place and it went by so fast (Bangkok, Hong Kong, Vegas, home, Pennsylvania, and now Detroit).
Bangkok- Protests, sweet hostel, good books
Hong Kong- Really cool place, lots of wandering around, good books
Vegas- Hung out and relaxed, had fun, some interesting live poker
Home, PA, and Detroit- Would not trade my family for any other
No online poker all month and I did not put a lot of work in off the tables either (I am refreshed though).

Year-in-Review (2013):
Poker- The biggest take away from my first year doing this full time is that I think I now see many things more as they really are.
- My "in-game", play, poker theory, or whatever you want to call it is worse (both absolutely and relative to the field) than I believed.
- Just how this whole poker thing works. Both on a macro/poker economy level and the game's e(a?)ffect on me.
I was about to say that my approach and has fundamentally changed, but that really isn't true (insert next post).
Life- I learned that people are so much more important than places. The two are not even on the same level. One is infinitely more important that the other.
I still have not personally met anyone who I can say I think is at there core bad or evil (and trust me I'm looking)....maybe next year.

Resolutions:
I think my resolutions last year were
1-Brush teeth twice a day
2- Stop taking myself so seriously
3- Have fun

A few comments and only a few slight changes for 2014:
1- I did pretty good if say so myself. Lets keep it going.

#1- Brush twice a day + floss a few times a week + go to dentist at least once

2- I am keeping this one like it is (And may I recommend this one to you too).

#2- Stop taking myself so seriously

3- This one is too vague. I like the Jimmy V idea that a day is complete when you laugh, think and cry....so

#3- Laugh, Think, and Cry a lot (in the same day) 

Some Holiday Shots (cool new camera!):

Uncle P in action on Xmas morning

Nice Hat 

Food Truck w Grandpa and Sister

MOM smiles !!!

"It was a scratch"...sure

Nice looking tree

Eyes closed....so much practice

You're fun to watch

"Look at me, look at me"  

I just take pictures of myself when I am bored

Grandpa preaching again

Happy New Year

Ted

"Put down your pencils"

.....I always had mixed feelings after the teacher said those words when taking a test. Not being done or doing as well as I thought I should, I was left unsatisfied and frustrated. But on the other hand I was always glad it was over. Finished up playing for the year a few hours ago and that is exactly how I feel.
I met my volume goal, feel like I'm playing the best I ever have, and wrapped up the year with a good month. That being said I feel like it "left some out there", which is not a good feeling. Ohhh well, already looking forward to getting more out of myself in 2014, but I am really looking forward to December.
Tomorrow off to Bangkok for two days, then Hong Kong for a week, over the big ocean to Las Vegas for ten days, then flying home for the Christmas....I get excited just thinking in about it all.

Random things:
- I watched Fat, Sick, and Nearly Dead yesterday and I think I am going to get a juicer.
- Billy Crystal is my new favorite comedian AINEC.
- I am starting to the hang of these internet short hand things.
- Having a good face-to-face conversation is one of the reasons I am really looking forward to coming home....it's been TOO LONG.
- I tried to buy $2,000 in Bitcoin when they were at $12.50, but I didn't because getting verified for the the exchange was too much of a hassle. ATM they are trading at $1199.00[https://www.mtgox.com/]. I'm not going to do the math.

Take Care

Crazy November

My First Year

Damn you......

....good mood, go way, I need to work.
For the past few days I have been in a strangely good mood (a bouncing/skipping instead of walking down the street good mood). My cousin got engaged!!!, running good at the tables, weather is beautiful, good book, eating too much, no exercise[1], looking forward to some travel at the end of the month and ending up back home to see my family for Christmas....just nothing bad has entered my head in the last few days[2].
I need to snap out of it. When I am in a good mood there are so many things I would rather be doing than[3] sitting in front of my computer playing poker (and I am a little less than half way to getting to my volume target for November).

AHHHHHHH
Ted

[1] - I am getting fat in a hurry.
[2] - I haven't turned on my TV in weeks and only get my news via twitter....maybe that has something to do with my good mood too?
[3] - I still don't know the difference between then and than. Is that acceptable?

Quick Update; Back in Chiang Mai

I am back in Chiang Mai for November. My trip to Bangkok was great. I met some cool people, explored the city, avoided being scammed and ripped off all but once, and relaxed. But after a few days I a was more than ready to get back to work.
October ended up results wise the best month of the year for me, but I was not happy at all with how I played especially during a week long span where I played like a complete dog.
I am trying to put in a ton of GOOD volume in November so I can clear a bonus and so I don't feel so bad when not playing at all in December.
December 1st and 2nd in Bangkok, 3-9th in Hong Kong and Macau, then flying to back to the states, probably spend a few days with a good friend in Vegas, then home for the holidays!!!!, then....I don't know. Looking forward too it all.

All the best


A Blog: http://sethgodin.typepad.com/
A Song (one of my favorites): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_5U0M9ErGA
October (very mixed feelings):